Profit is a starting point. Consistency needs evidence.
Six public wallets selected from Polymarket’s sports PnL leaders. Inspect the covered game results, their concentration and the gaps that remain.
Fixed research snapshot20 Jul 2026 – 18 Oct 2026 · UTC
No wallet is verified sharp. Covered fixture PnL is a reconciled sample, not complete wallet PnL. Unverified provider estimates appear separately. This snapshot does not refresh with the live directory.
6Wallets in this research cohort
3,241Covered wallet–game results
180 / 180Original fixture gaps recovered
18,641Further unresolved results in the window
Wallet–game results count each wallet’s result separately, even when wallets traded the same game. This is a selected cohort, not an exchange-wide ranking. RN1 and swisstony’s API downloads are complete; their PnL accounting is still partial.
Kch-Temp
0x924379a79c64b77ad5816ad362122a5f6228658e
Promising covered sample
Unclaimed · Sharpness unassessed
Covered fixture PnL · USDC
+2,576,341.95
150 covered games · 0 unresolved · 100.0% of mapped dated fixtures covered
Positive observed 7-day buckets
8 / 12
Covered PnL without best fixture · USDC
+2,081,373.05
Positive after removing the best fixture, with 150 covered games and 8 of 12 positive observed settlement buckets. Forecasting skill is unverified.
No unresolved mapped fixtures in the dated sample. Provider omissions and other wallet activity remain unaudited.
Inspect settlement buckets and coverage
Full non-overlapping 7-day buckets within the window, grouped by official fixture settlement. Empty buckets are unknown; unresolved games can change a sign. These are not weekly portfolio returns.
Covered fixture results · USDC
7-day start · UTC
Sample PnL
Covered
Unresolved
23 Jul 2026
+6,866.80
6
0
30 Jul 2026
-4,072.79
1
0
06 Aug 2026
+22,453.32
1
0
13 Aug 2026
+17,005.22
1
0
20 Aug 2026
-49.01
3
0
27 Aug 2026
+54,574.84
5
0
03 Sep 2026
-93,915.80
5
0
10 Sep 2026
+761,023.98
19
0
17 Sep 2026
+698,225.92
28
0
24 Sep 2026
+317,912.50
22
0
01 Oct 2026
-103,109.62
24
0
08 Oct 2026
+649,829.73
24
0
12 observed buckets have no unresolved mapped fixture. Provider-index completeness is unverified.
248 covered games · 0 unresolved · 100.0% of mapped dated fixtures covered
Positive observed 7-day buckets
7 / 12
Covered PnL without best fixture · USDC
-713,891.13
The covered result turns negative after removing its best fixture. Positive total PnL alone does not establish consistency.
No unresolved mapped fixtures in the dated sample. Provider omissions and other wallet activity remain unaudited.
Inspect settlement buckets and coverage
Full non-overlapping 7-day buckets within the window, grouped by official fixture settlement. Empty buckets are unknown; unresolved games can change a sign. These are not weekly portfolio returns.
Covered fixture results · USDC
7-day start · UTC
Sample PnL
Covered
Unresolved
23 Jul 2026
+605.95
5
0
30 Jul 2026
+78,911.53
6
0
06 Aug 2026
-536,506.79
19
0
13 Aug 2026
-2,283,750.38
10
0
20 Aug 2026
-1,413,096.77
25
0
27 Aug 2026
-808,081.98
19
0
03 Sep 2026
+79,874.54
21
0
10 Sep 2026
+551,332.34
33
0
17 Sep 2026
-1,051,601.85
20
0
24 Sep 2026
+2,480,627.22
29
0
01 Oct 2026
+311,468.28
23
0
08 Oct 2026
+1,816,002.99
26
0
12 observed buckets have no unresolved mapped fixture. Provider-index completeness is unverified.
9 covered games · 0 unresolved · 100.0% of mapped dated fixtures covered
Positive observed 7-day buckets
2 / 2
Covered PnL without best fixture · USDC
+2,988,589.01
Nine covered games, with settlements on 5–17 October. Two positive observed buckets do not establish sustained consistency.
No unresolved mapped fixtures in the dated sample. Provider omissions and other wallet activity remain unaudited.
Inspect settlement buckets and coverage
Full non-overlapping 7-day buckets within the window, grouped by official fixture settlement. Empty buckets are unknown; unresolved games can change a sign. These are not weekly portfolio returns.
Covered fixture results · USDC
7-day start · UTC
Sample PnL
Covered
Unresolved
01 Oct 2026
+1,533,205.81
2
0
08 Oct 2026
+2,832,810.45
2
0
2 observed buckets have no unresolved mapped fixture. Provider-index completeness is unverified.
2,242 covered games · 12,923 unresolved · 14.8% of mapped dated fixtures covered
Positive observed 7-day buckets
6 / 12
Covered PnL without best fixture · USDC
-88,850.81
Most mapped fixtures remain unresolved. The negative covered slice cannot establish whether this wallet was profitable overall.
Unresolved fixtures can change the result and the sign of a settlement bucket.
Inspect settlement buckets and coverage
Full non-overlapping 7-day buckets within the window, grouped by official fixture settlement. Empty buckets are unknown; unresolved games can change a sign. These are not weekly portfolio returns.
Covered fixture results · USDC
7-day start · UTC
Sample PnL
Covered
Unresolved
23 Jul 2026
-34,554.95
107
1,236
30 Jul 2026
+288.62
107
1,289
06 Aug 2026
-7,467.91
105
973
13 Aug 2026
-11,352.22
168
1,349
20 Aug 2026
+8,777.83
266
1,469
27 Aug 2026
+3,135.62
193
1,169
03 Sep 2026
-46,973.41
217
831
10 Sep 2026
-17,991.66
216
854
17 Sep 2026
-7,623.48
210
764
24 Sep 2026
+405.49
121
614
01 Oct 2026
+2,519.78
119
578
08 Oct 2026
+6,522.91
223
892
0 observed buckets have no unresolved mapped fixture. Provider-index completeness is unverified.
592 covered games · 5,718 unresolved · 9.4% of mapped dated fixtures covered
Positive observed 7-day buckets
8 / 12
Covered PnL without best fixture · USDC
+5,672.17
Most mapped fixtures remain unresolved. The positive covered slice cannot establish consistent wallet profitability.
Unresolved fixtures can change the result and the sign of a settlement bucket.
Inspect settlement buckets and coverage
Full non-overlapping 7-day buckets within the window, grouped by official fixture settlement. Empty buckets are unknown; unresolved games can change a sign. These are not weekly portfolio returns.
Covered fixture results · USDC
7-day start · UTC
Sample PnL
Covered
Unresolved
23 Jul 2026
+4,267.20
29
687
30 Jul 2026
+1,614.74
51
1,060
06 Aug 2026
+1,639.99
75
1,039
13 Aug 2026
+621.38
213
1,301
20 Aug 2026
-3,460.90
150
1,221
27 Aug 2026
-385.48
14
54
03 Sep 2026
-30.72
1
1
10 Sep 2026
+3.48
5
5
17 Sep 2026
-20.48
1
2
24 Sep 2026
+92.02
2
1
01 Oct 2026
+237.15
6
5
08 Oct 2026
+509.75
6
2
0 observed buckets have no unresolved mapped fixture. Provider-index completeness is unverified.
0 covered games · 0 unresolved · Unknown of mapped dated fixtures covered
Positive observed 7-day buckets
Unknown
Covered PnL without best fixture · USDC
Unknown
The API trade walk returned no trades in this window. A missing result is unknown; it does not establish zero PnL or inactivity.
No mapped fixture result is available for this window.
Inspect settlement buckets and coverage
Full non-overlapping 7-day buckets within the window, grouped by official fixture settlement. Empty buckets are unknown; unresolved games can change a sign. These are not weekly portfolio returns.
No observed settlement buckets. PnL is unknown.
0 observed buckets have no unresolved mapped fixture. Provider-index completeness is unverified.
Covered results: mapped settled sports fixtures passing strict API cash and quantity reconciliation, plus separately evidenced receipt investigations. The original 180 gaps were accounted for using 17,849 observed transaction identities and fixed historical token balances. Profit includes covered losses; no threshold was loosened to improve the result.
Unverified results: provider position PnL is a separate aggregate of returned mapped fixtures with available figures. Snapshots were fetched after the cutoff and are not a historical equity series. RN1 and swisstony still have substantial quantity, payout and mapping gaps.
Consistency: positive settlement buckets and removing the best fixture describe the covered sample. They do not establish forecasting skill. Missing or inactive markets, selection from current winners, unobserved transfers, risk, execution quality and off-platform hedges remain unaudited. Gas is excluded. Sports here does not certify every market category traded by these wallets.
Capture: 1,784,398 returned trade rows across all categories, 619,575 position rows and 1,683,755 selected sports lifecycle rows were collected for this research. A completed API walk only describes that provider index. kch123’s empty in-window trade response is not a zero-profit result.
Cutoff: 18 Oct 2026, 14:21:25 UTC. Report generated 2026-10-18T16:16:51.766642+00:00. No automatic historical refresh is enabled by this page.
Research source: approved PR #508, merged as c7fe5e24. The JSON includes source report and analysis hashes. The published data is packaged with this release; this page reads no workstation file or remote workstation service.
Published JSON SHA-256: f1615161bd6aeeaefc3fc98e9bc6ed0c13e4a00ac00960c2b61c74c668ea1450
